Monday, August 31, 2009

History of Forex

In July 1944, representatives from 44 countries met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to establish an arrangement to monitor the international economy after World War II. The Bretton Woods Agreement was developed due to the arrangement that is mainly designed to promote fair trade and international economic harmony.



In total, 730 delegates from 44 nations met for three weeks in July that year at a hotel resort in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The result of this international meeting, the Bretton Woods Agreement, had the original purpose of rebuilding after World War II through a series of currency stabilization programs and infrastructure loans to war-ravaged nations.

Some delegates of The Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944


Bretton Woods had the original intention of smoothing out economic conflict, in recognition of the problems that economic disparity causes. Due to its economic dominance, the United States held the leadership role at Bretton Woods.

Among the organizations that were formed under The Bretton Woods Agreement includes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. This system worked for 25 years. But it was flawed in its underlying assumptions.

The Bretton Woods Agreement did not include any provisions for creation of reserves. The presumption was that gold production would be sufficient to continue funding growth and that any short term problems could be resolved through the borrowing regimens.

However, the Bretton Woods Agreement lacked any effective mechanism for checking reserve growth. Only gold and the U.S. asset were considered seriously as reserves, but gold production was lagging. Accordingly, dollar reserves had to expand to make up the difference in lagging gold availability, causing a growing U.S. current account deficit.

The Bretton Woods system collapsed, partially due to economic expansion in excess of the gold standard's funding abilities on the part of the United States and other member nations. However, the problems of currency systems not pegged to gold lead to economic problems far worse. However, after Bretton Woods was demolished in 1971, the IMF worked closely with the World Bank and together, these organizations lend funds to developing nations.

After the Bretton Woods Agreement, which managed to change the perception about the U.S. dollar, the Smithsonian Agreement took over. The Smithsonian Agreement, initiated by U.S. President Richard Nixon managed to maintain fixed exchange rates but it was even more shaky and unsound than the gold exchange standard of the 1920s or than Bretton Woods.

It was inevitable that fixed exchange rates, even with wider agreed zones of fluctuation, but lacking a world medium of exchange, were doomed to rapid defeat. This was especially true since American inflation of money and prices, the decline of the dollar, and balance of payments deficits continued unchecked.

The overvaluation of the dollar and the undervaluation of European and Japanese hard money became increasingly evident, the dollar finally broke apart on the world markets in the panic months of February-March 1973.

It became impossible for West Germany, Switzerland, France and the other hard money countries to continue to buy dollars in order to support the dollar at an overvalued rate. In little over a year, the Smithsonian system of fixed exchange rates without gold had smashed apart on the rocks of economic reality.

The fact that depreciating dollars means that American imports are far more expensive, American tourists suffer abroad, and cheap exports are snapped up by foreign countries so rapidly as to raise prices of exports at home (e.g., the American wheat-and-meat price inflation).

The crippling uncertainty of rapid exchange rate fluctuations was brought starkly home to Americans with the rapid plunge of the dollar in foreign exchange markets in July 1973. Methods of regulating the foreign exchange market - such as fixing currency values to a commodity such as gold, or setting maximum exchange rate fluctuations had proven to be too rigid.

After the regulatory mechanisms - such as the gold standard, the Bretton Woods Accord and the Smithsonian Agreement - were no longer in place, the currency market was left with only the forces of supply and demand to guide it.

These conditions led to the Plaza Accord, where on September 22nd 1985, finance ministers and central bank governors from the then G-5 nations - the United States, Japan, West Germany, France and the UK - gathered at the Plaza hotel in New York. In simpler words, the ministers of finance and central bank governors of world leading economies gathered at Plaza Hotel in New York to take some decisions on the international economy.

The result of the gathering was the Plaza Accord, which was implemented on September 22 1985. The Plaza Accord was designed to allow for a controlled decline of the dollar and the appreciation of the main anti-dollar currencies.

The Plaza Accord cemented the role of the central banks in regulating the exchange rate movement. The US persuaded the leaders to coordinate a multilateral intervention, designed to allow for a controlled decline of the dollar and the appreciation of the main anti-dollar currencies.

Each country agreed to make changes in its economic policies and to intervene in currency markets as necessary to bring down the value of the dollar. Not every country fulfilled their agreements however. The US did not follow through on its promise to cut the budget deficit - Japan was badly affected by the dramatic rise in the Yen - its exporters unable to remain competitive overseas.

The impact of the intervention was immediate and within 2 years the Dollar had fallen 46% to the Deutsche Mark (DEM) and 50% to the Yen (JPY). By the end of 1987, the dollar had fallen by 54% against the D-mark and the Yen from its peak in February in 1985. THe US Economy became geared more toward exports, while Germany and Japan increased their imports.


George Soros


George Soros, "The man who broke the bank of England", got the title due to the $10 billion bet that he won against the U.K. pound. George Soros is now the Chairman of Soros Fund Management, LLC and founder of The
Open Society Institute. He was born in Budapest in 1930. He survived the Nazi occupation and then
fled communist Hungary for England, where he graduated from the London School of Economics. He then settled in the United States, where he accumulated a large fortune through the investment advisory firm he founded and managed. Soros is the author of 10 books including most recently, "The Crash of 2008 and What It Means".


Thursday, August 20, 2009

Introduction to Foreign Exchange

1. What is Forex?

Forex is an acronym for foreign exchange and it is a process of a nation's currency exchanged for another in order to gain profit as well as to do business internationally. When a currency is traded, the transaction is carried out on the Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex or FX market).
Forex involves exchanging one currency for another currency in anticipation of a price change in the trader's favour. There are quite a number of currencies involved in Forex and these include USD (The US Dollar), YEN (The Japanese Yen), EUR (The European Euro), GBP (The British Pound) and CHF (The Swiss Franc).

In order to perform a transaction successfully on the foreign exchange market, a currency pair is an absolute essential. Unlike other monetary exchanges and financial transactions such as the stock exchange market, forex does not really need a physical location to operate but rather, it operates through a global network of banks corporations and individuals trading, all involved in the buying and selling of national currencies.


Traditionally, the Forex market was only accessible to organizations such as banks and other large financial institutions. However, the rapidly progressing world with which advanced with equal pace over the years, the Forex market is now available to money managers as well as individual Forex traders.














2. Who can get involved and benefit from forex?
In one simple word...anyone! Yes, anyone with some initial capital (as low as $200 with CMS Forex), and a computer with an internet connection can become a participant in this global and liquid financial market.



3. Advantages

Forex is the largest financial market in the world with an average traded value that exceeds $1.9 trillion per day and includes all of the currencies in the world. The foreign exchange market also has growing liquidity. Liquidity simply means the degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset's price. Liquidity is characterized by a high level of trading activity.




In the foreign exchange market, there are buyers and sellers at any time, in any location thus making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world. Foreign exchange is done all day long, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers, because the forex market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week and currencies are traded worldwide.
Among the major financial centers across the world are London, New York, Tokyo, ZΓΌrich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris and Sydney. The most appealing factor about the around the clock trading is the fact that no matter what time of the day or night it is, the forex market is always moving, traders do not have to wait for the equities market to open in the morning and people with full time jobs have the convenience of trading after their work hours.

In the forex market, traders can profit in both bull and bear markets. Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results will continue. It's difficult to predict consistently when the trends in the market will change. Part of the difficulty is that psychological effects and speculation may sometimes play a large role in the markets.

On the other hand, a bear market is a market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.
Profits have the potential to be made in both these upward-trending and downward trending markets. The forex market also has customizable leverage and it has 50 times more leverage than trading stocks. Leverage is one of the most appealing and risky factors of the forex market. Leverage helps both the investor and the firm to invest or operate.
The foreign exchange market is an excellent platform for trading because it has minimum slippage and errors. This simply means that most traders are able to stop-loss and limit orders on up to a certain number of standard lots as well as provide instantaneous trade executions from real-time quotes.

The forex is the perfect market for technical analysis because since the forex is a 24-hour market, there tends to be a large amount of data that can be used to gauge future price activity, thereby increasing the statistical significance of the forecast. This makes it the perfect market for traders that use technical tools, such as trends, charts and indicators.

The forex market also has lower transaction costs and there will be no middleman involved in it because currency trading bypasses expensive middlemen that are always associated with trading stocks. With forex, clients are able to interact directly with the currency market, and can buy and sell at the simple click of a mouse.



3. Disadvantages

There are limited options in forex for traders, unless they keep up with expiring contracts, they are subject to physical delivery. Apart from that, commissions and brokerage fees can be high in the foreign exchange market.

4. Types of traders

There are two types of traders in the foreign exchange market including consumer traders who desire a long term ownership and is not too anxious about the daily price movements as well as speculative traders who are totally concerned with
the daily price movements and they keep a close watch on it.







5. Important terms involved in Forex

Spread
Spread is the difference between the buy price and the sell price of a specific currency. The spread for an asset is influenced by a number of factors including supply or "float" (the total number of shares outstanding that are available to trade), demand or interest in a stock as well as total trading activity of the stock.

Pipe
Pipe is the acronym for percentage in point, a pip is the smallest price unit for a currency. It is the smallest price change that a given exchange rate can make. Since most major currency pairs are priced to 4 decimal places, the smallest change is that of the last decimal point - for most pairs this is the equivalent of 1/100 of 1 percent, or 1 basis point.

Leverage
Leverage is the process of borrowing a broker's money to trade. It is also the use of various financial instruments or borrowed capita, such as margin, to increase the potential return of an investment.

Lots
Lots is the buying or selling currency in units is referred to as lots. In the financial markets, a lot represents the standardized quantity of a financial instrument as set out by an exchange or similar regulatory body. For exchange-traded securities, a lot may represent the minimum quantity of that security that may be traded. Two types of lots involved are the regular lot which is worth $100,000 and the mini lot which is worth $10,000.
Bulls
Bulls is a financial market of a group of securities in which prices are rising or are expected to rise. The term "bull market" is often most often used to refer to the stock market, but can be applied to anything that is traded, such as bonds, currencies and commodities.
Bears
Bears are investors who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.
Market Order
Market order is an order placed to enter or exit the market at the current market price. It is an order to buy or sell a stock immediately at the best available current price. A market order is sometimes referred to as an "unrestricted order". A market order guarantees execution, and it often has low commissions due to the minimal work brokers need to do.

Limit Order
Limit orders are orders placed with a brokerage to buy or sell a set number of shares at a specified price or better. Limit orders also allow an investor to limit the length of time an order can be outstanding before being cancelled. Depending on the direction of the position, limit orders are sometimes referred to more specifically as a buy limit order, or a sell limit order.
Stop Order
Stop orders is an order to buy or sell a security when its price surpasses a particular point thus ensuring a greater probability of achieving a predetermined entry or exit price, limiting the investor's loss or locking in his or her profit. Once the price surpasses the predefined entry/exit point, the stop order becomes a market order. Also referred to as a "stop" and/or "stop-loss order".
Slippage
Slippage is the difference between the expected price of a trade, and the price the trade actually executes at. Slippage often occurs during periods of higher volatility, when market orders are used, and also when large orders are executed when there may not be enough interest at the desired price level to maintain the expected price of trade. Slippage is a term often used in both forex and stock trading, and although the definition is the same for both, slippage occurs in different situations for each of these types of trading.